Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q1 2011

The Singapore Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's oil and gas industry.
The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.87% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2015, while not contributing to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2001 will reach an estimated 27.11mn b/d in 2010, then rises to around 30.64mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001, and will average an estimated 8.91mn b/d in 2010. It is set to decrease slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2015. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 18.20mn b/d in 2010, and is forecast to reach 21.75mn b/d by 2015. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2015 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to have consumed 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Singapores estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 2.05%, and market share is expected to rise to 2.16% by 2015. There is no gas production in Singapore.
For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will have emerged around the US$77.00 per barrel (bbl) level, representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011.
Singapores real GDP growth in 2010 is assumed by BMI to be 12.9%, with the forecast average annual increase put at 5.7% in 2010-2015. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 1.19mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 10.0bcm in 2010 to 13.7bcm by 2015.
Source: Press release